The 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) will be held in Glasgow, Scotland, from October 31 to November 12. In the view of many environmental activists, the United Nations Climate Change Conference is undoubtedly a critical crossroads for global climate governance, and will eventually affect the fate of all mankind.
Climate negotiations at the COP are always tough: climate representatives from nearly 200 countries will come together to try to come up with a plan to prevent catastrophic warming of the planet. This year, climate disasters in many parts of the world are bringing a new sense of urgency to the issue. However, the current global energy crisis, with Asia and Europe rushing to buy fossil fuels, has given many laggards an excuse not to participate.
If human society can agree on the goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050 or 2060, we can hopefully avoid the worst consequences of the climate crisis. But today, time for human society is clearly running out...
Here is a detailed look ahead to the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference:
What is COP26?
The COP stands for the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and is responsible for monitoring and reviewing the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Conference of the Parties brings together the 197 countries and territories (called Parties) that have signed the Framework Convention. The COP has been held every year since 1995, except last year when it was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and this year is the 26th meeting, so it is known as COP26.
At the COP21 Conference held in Paris, France, in December 2015, participants reached an important consensus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and signed the historic Paris Agreement, which is the second legally binding climate agreement after the Kyoto Protocol, and makes arrangements for global action on climate change after 2020.
The long-term goal of the Paris Agreement is to keep the global average temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial times and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Developed countries have also pledged to provide $100 billion a year from 2020 to improve the energy mix in developing countries and reduce the impact of reducing carbon emissions on people's livelihoods.
Why is this year's Conference of the Parties so important?
This year's Conference of the Parties is undoubtedly particularly important. Under the Paris Agreement, parties are required to publish nationally determined Contribution action plans (NDCS) that reflect their ambition to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, and their progress will be reviewed and assessed every five years. This year's 26th session is precisely the time to renew the NDC every five years.
In addition, this is the first COP since the United States, the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter, rejoined the Paris agreement. Under former President Donald Trump, the United States once withdrew from the Paris Agreement, but current President Joe Biden's first act after taking office was to bring the United States back to the agreement. It is reported that this time, including US Secretary of State Blinken, Treasury Secretary Yellen, including more than a dozen key officials will accompany Biden to visit the UK. According to CNN, by forming a large delegation, the United States is demonstrating "a whole-of-government approach to the climate crisis."
The UK is hosting this year's COP26 conference. The goal is to agree on more new climate policy measures to achieve the emissions reductions and financial support promised under the Paris Agreement. So far, most States parties have said they will send delegations to the meeting, and some of their top leaders will attend in person. Executives from many large multinational corporations, activists and non-governmental organizations from around the world are also scheduled to attend at least part of the two-week conference.
It is worth mentioning that this year's COP meeting schedule coincides with the G20 summit scheduled for this weekend in Rome (October 30-31). Climate will also be high on the agenda at the G20 summit, which will cover sensitive issues such as coal use, net zero targets and climate finance. So far, G20 members have made little progress on climate issues during previous summits, and there are even some signs of "backtracking".
If leaders can make some progress first at the G20 summit, it will undoubtedly give a big boost to the COP. Many of them will be heading straight from Rome to Glasgow on October 31.
What is the current NDC report card of each country?
According to the latest Emissions Gap Report released by the United Nations Environment Programme this week, new and updated climate pledges reported by countries fall far short of what is required to meet the Paris Agreement's climate targets, and failure to make timely improvements is expected to put the world on a catastrophic path to "at least 2.7 ° C of warming by the end of the century."
The Emissions Gap Report is now in its 12th year of publication. Compared with the previous round of pledges, the updated nationally determined Contributions (NDCS) reported by countries and some other climate change mitigation commitments already announced only cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by 7.5 per cent from the original projections for 2030, the report said. However, maintaining the lowest-cost path to the Paris Agreement's 2 ° C target would require a 30% reduction; To achieve the 1.5C target, a 55% reduction is needed.
As of 30 September 2021, 120 countries accounting for more than half of global greenhouse gas emissions have reported new or updated nationally determined Contributions. In addition, three G20 members have announced new climate change mitigation commitments for 2030. A total of 49 countries and the European Union have committed to the "net zero" goal. This covers more than half of the world's domestic greenhouse gas emissions, more than half of gross domestic product (GDP) and one-third of the global population. Eleven targets are enshrined in law, representing 12% of global emissions.
The report suggests that a "net zero" commitment could have a dramatic effect. If fully implemented, these "net zero" commitments will help limit global warming to 2.2 ° C, offering the world a glimmer of hope that further climate action can still prevent the catastrophic effects of climate change. However, current global "net zero" commitments remain vague, mostly incomplete, and inconsistent with most countries' nationally determined Contributions for 2030. Many countries have delayed action beyond 2030 in their climate plans, putting the "net zero" commitment in question.
The report also notes that most countries have missed the opportunity to make full use of COVID-19 fiscal relief and recovery spending to stimulate their economies and support climate action. By May 2021, only 17-19% of the total global recovery investment will contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 90 per cent of that spending came from six G20 countries and one guest country: China, South Korea, Spain, Germany, the UK, France and Japan.
Alok Sharma, president of the current UN Climate Change Conference, said: "Clearly, we have made some progress, but it is not enough. "If we are to achieve the 1.5 ° C target over the next critical decade, we need particularly stronger commitments by the big emitters, the G20 countries, for 2030."
What are the expected outcomes of this Conference of the Parties?
In addition to reviewing and evaluating the progress of national NDCS, whether this Conference of the Parties can reach more global climate agreements and consensus is also the focus of attention of all parties. The British hosts described the goal of the climate conference as "coal, cars, cash and trees."
This means that countries should work to stop using the dirtiest fossil fuels; Phase out gas-powered vehicles; Raise cash to help developing countries transition to cleaner energy sources and protect them from climate change; Stop deforestation, etc.
In addition, the Conference of the Parties will also try to find a breakthrough in the rules of global carbon pricing and trading.
Expect some positive announcements - and possibly some new commitments - in the first two days of the conference. After the leaders leave, the real detailed negotiation work will also be in full swing.
The most ambitious goal: make coal a thing of the past?
As host, Britain has set a goal for the conference: make coal a thing of the past. The country has also been trying to push the goal at this year's G7 and G20 meetings, but has had limited success so far.
A recent United Nations report concluded that to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions around 2050, coal-fired power generation should be "eliminated as soon as possible." At present, many countries have decided to completely eliminate coal thermal power generation, such as Western European countries and Canada. The United States has also proposed decarbonizing its power sector by 2035. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in September that "developed countries will be required to wean themselves off coal by 2030 and developing countries by 2040."
However, it is clear that the initiative faces significant global resistance. Unlike countries such as Europe and the United States, where carbon emissions have long since peaked, many developing countries are now opposed to Britain's call for an early phase-out of coal-fired power and a shift away from fossil fuels to meet rising demand for electricity as their economies grow. Especially with the rise in global energy prices since the summer, many countries in the world have begun to "look at coal to quench their thirst".
Saudi Arabia is also urging other oil producers to unite against growing calls to reduce fossil fuel investment at a climate summit starting later this month, saying such a move could exacerbate the current surge in energy prices, according to people familiar with the matter.
It is widely expected that the Conference of the Parties will be difficult to reach a comprehensive agreement on the abolition of coal power in the form agreed by all participating countries. Even British Prime Minister Boris Johnson predicted at a recent press conference that the summit would be "very, very difficult" to achieve.
Filling the gap in the Paris Agreement: Carbon markets?
It is unlikely that coal will be consigned to the past so easily, but the next best thing is that an agreement on a global carbon market mechanism at the Conference of the Parties will be one for the history books.
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement deals with the global carbon market mechanism and cooperation, which aims to help form a cohesive multilateral carbon pricing mechanism at the global level and enhance the transparency of the global carbon market. However, due to its complexity and controversy, the details have never been finalized. At the 25th session of the Conference of the Parties held in 2019, representatives of participating countries had hard negotiations on the detailed rules, but because Brazil was not willing to compromise with the EU on the relevant details, the negotiations stalled, and finally fell apart.
The good news for now is that negotiators are forging a consensus. The basic idea is to match carbon-absorbing projects that reduce pollution with counterparties that need to reduce emissions through a so-called carbon offset market, which could be worth as much as $100 billion by 2030, according to estimates. In theory, this mechanism should drive capital to where the benefits are greatest and the costs lowest.
Lidia Wojtal of think tank Agora Energiewende says offsetting carbon emissions is becoming an increasingly important element of decarbonisation strategies. While there are already various voluntary carbon markets that could provide such credits, agreement on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement would still be fundamentally different: it would ensure a truly global standard."
The difficulty now lies in creating a powerful financial instrument to translate national commitments into comparable, exchangeable units. The framework needs to be flexible enough to attract investment and satisfy countries with different priorities, and it needs to be credible. Some negotiators say a bad deal is worse than no deal if the rules put in place are not robust enough. Developing countries, by and large, are eager to get money from a new program, while rich countries, led by the European Union, are focused on the integrity of the system.
Making the planet Greener: Stop Deforestation?
The UK government is also currently seeking a global commitment to stop deforestation by 2030, with a quarter of the world's carbon emissions coming from forests being converted to farmland.
According to people familiar with the matter, the European Union, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, among others, have agreed to support the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use, But Brazil, which owns the Amazon rainforest, has not agreed to sign the deal. The announcement is expected on November 2.
With negotiations on targets such as reducing coal use looking increasingly difficult, Britain hopes the side deals will allow smaller countries to step up efforts to curb global warming. According to the draft declaration on Forests and Land Use, it aims to pool public and private funds for forest conservation and sets a target of halting forest loss and reversing land degradation by 2030.
The draft also includes a proposal to remake agricultural policy to protect the environment; This is a potential sticking point and a key issue, as deforestation is often linked to agricultural activities.
The toughest question: Money?
The implementation of any energy transition will not cost money, and the failure of rich countries to deliver on their pledge of $100 billion a year to poor countries facing climate change has cast a shadow over the current UN climate change conference.
In 2009, developed countries vowed to spend $100 billion annually in the five years from 2020 to help improve the energy mix of developing countries and reduce the impact of reducing carbon emissions on people's livelihoods.
But Canada and Germany, in an action plan prepared ahead of the COP26 summit in Scotland, said the annual target would not be met until 2023.
The failure to meet the target means developed countries are reneging on previous commitments, complicating efforts to set targets for increasing climate aid. Alok Sharma, president of the COP26 climate conference, said: "Understandably, this has been a source of deep frustration for developing countries. The purpose of this plan is to rebuild trust... Countries need to live up to their promises."
Canada and Germany said they expected significant progress in 2022 and were confident of meeting the annual target of $100 billion by 2023. "This data also leads us to believe that we may be able to raise more than $100 billion per year thereafter," they said in the 12-page plan, adding that the private sector had contributed less than expected.
The biggest wind in the financial market: Green transformation?
On November 3, finance ministers, central bankers and chief executives of Wall Street banks will also gather in Glasgow for the conference's Finance Day, which will focus on how to "green" the global financial system, shift money from polluting industries to cleaner ones, and pledge to phase out or stop funding for coal projects.
At present, the green transformation is undoubtedly the biggest "tuyere" in the global financial market in recent years. In a policy report released on Monday, the UN-backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) predicted that under the influence of global government policy changes on global warming, new energy vehicles,
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